As we move into the much warmer weather of spring, we thought we’d look back on Winter 2020 and share our thoughts on this season.
This year has been a rollercoaster of financial, emotional, personal, and political events. Whilst sometimes it feels as though the last three months have been nothing but difficult and bad news, there’s also loads of positives and strengths coming out of it and launching us into spring.
Check out our market update, including what’s going on domestically and globally, as well as a bit of what to look forward to moving into the new season.
As always if you have any questions or want a chat just let us know.
Great investment growth with most of the larger global markets growing between 5 and 8% in the last 3 months alone, with Australia included. Most of the world has brushed off a lot of the bad news about COVID-19 which I think is premature. Whilst I think that markets are reasonably valued, they are valued as such based on the hope that Australians can get back to work relatively quickly, and the COVID threat can be knocked on it’s head in a reasonably short amount of time.
I see some risks in the market, with continued high unemployment rates, and a current over-reliance on JobKeeper and JobSeeker from the current unemployed or stood down workforce. If we don’t see people getting back to work after Christmas and getting close to previous output, we might see some domestic market shocks, with the international listed markets providing a greater outlook for growth, provided that current global stimulus continues across a lot of the overseas markets.
Property market has remained relatively stable in most major cities. Whilst that is a strength, there are couple of weaknesses in that there has been a decline in demand and in foreign real estate investment and residential development meaning that there is a housing shortage looming, which sounds good in the short term for housing prices, but isn’t good for the broader economy.
Personally Lauren and I have changed our headquarters from the Whitsundays to Victoria. We are still going to have a very strong presence in the Whitsundays, so nothing changes from the way that we work together as we can do everything online, and so long as numbers continue to fall, we hope to be back up in the Whitsundays by January or February next year. Looking at new business opportunities and maybe taking over a new practice in the new year, so watch this space as it may mean some extra services and we’ll keep you informed of anything along the way.
Politics both at the state, federal and international level. There’s so much happening right now that I don’t envy any government leader, especially Daniel Andrews in Victoria because there doesn’t seem to be a right answer and governments at the moment are caught between trying to provide good health outcomes and protect people against COVID, but also ensuring that business and trade keeps moving and allowing the economy to springboard with relative ease.
Internationally we’re keeping our eyes on disputes with China, as they have been throwing their weight around on a few trade issues such as barley, beef and now they’re talking about putting sanctions and tariffs on Australian wine. This is concerning as it seems China is systematically targeting some of our most reliant export goods at a time where we’re not equipped to really retaliate. Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott has just been placed in a key position in the UK’s department of trade and foreign affairs which is really good news and is fuelling rumours of greater UK and Commonwealth trade collaboration.
One of the biggest causes of opportunities and threats in global politics is obviously the November USA election. I still haven’t made up my mind as to what I think would be the preferable option, and this isn’t because there is a multitude of good options out there, I think that both potential outcomes of either a democrat or republican win is going to have severely polarising repercussions, and we have no idea what the fallout of these events will be. Watch this space.
If you’re feeling any concerns or hesitations about current domestic or international market conditions, please give me a call and we can discuss your investments and how you’re current positioned in the market, and we can make any changes if we need to.
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